Monday 17 February 2020

Could earlier second half subs help AFCB's game?

Bournemouth's second half performances have been a bit flat of late and it's something that could be linked to how Eddie Howe is using his substitutes. The goals in the second half of games just haven't been coming, and it's hard to know exactly why, when Bournemouth have started to get the first goal in games.
AFCB have the subs but are they sing them at the best times?
We have to go back two games to the match against Brighton to see a second half goal for the Cherries at home, not counting FA Cup games and yet Bournemouth haven't scored two goals at home in the second half since the 3-1 win against Everton in September 2019. For away games, you have to go back to December to the Chelsea game for a second half Bournemouth goal and November for the Spurs match to find two Bournemouth away second half goals. In the whole season the Cherries have scored just 10 second half goals in the Premier League from 26 games.

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Bournemouth are becoming a bit of a first half team and if they don't get a good lead they struggle. So is Eddie using his subs effectively enough? This calendar year I'd say the subs are being delayed too long and Eddie is reacting rather than being proactive. Against Sheffield United we had to wait for the 72nd minute for the first of three subs, there were no subs used against Villa despite going down to 10-men and Brighton was the 85th minute before two subs. The Norwich game saw an early technical sub, as Steve Cook was sent off but in the second half it was 78 minutes before the first of two subs. It was better against Watford with three subs and two on 59 minutes and Eddie can argue it didn't work from then when the team were 0-1 down at the time of the subs and went on to lose 0-3. Similarly Bournemouth were losing 3-0 to West Ham United when Eddie made a double substitution on 45 minutes and another on 68 minutes, and the team still went on to lose 4-0.
To be more proactive in the second half Bournemouth need to be in games in the second half and I felt they were against Sheffield United at 1-1, despite being overrun at times but Eddie didn't make the change on the hour and we'll never know if that could have changed the game although King couldn't make the difference when he did come on 18 minutes later. Howe probably thought the chances that fell to Fraser and Aké in the second half meant that he didn't need to chase a second goal, but by sitting back and hoping for a good counter-attack, it just gave Sheffield United more impetus to go and get their winner. Ironically, they scored the moment just after Bournemouth made a substitution with Junior Stanislas came on after 84 minutes.

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What we can see is that even when Howe makes late subs in the last 20 minutes, Bournemouth are still often conceding in that last part of the game. It's happened against Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Brighton and Watford since 1 January 2020. The Cherries are certainly at their weakest in the last 20 minutes of games.

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