First goal-itiss - did it contribute to AFCB downfall?

Steve Cook was clear that he felt a lot of the poor results that AFCB had in the season were not helped by conceding the first goal. Even when Bournemouth did score first that didn't always hold on to a lead. It was curious how well the team could play at times when they were really up against it, like at Man City and Everton and yet they couldn't perform at home after the restart with the exception of the Leicester City game, when even then, they didn't score first.

The first goal didn't come often enough for AFCB.

I am not sure what was happening in the players minds after the restart. They still had a good opportunity to beat the drop, but only mustered seven pints from nine games which is relegation form. West Ham pulled in 12 points, as did Brighton and Aston Villa won 10 points, only Norwich and Crystal Palace gathered less points than Bournemouth and Watford, who bot took seven points.

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Scoring first was perhaps on the teams mind, but it just didn't happen. The crushing free kick that was struck by Crystal Palace's Milivojevic completely deflated any confidence that had been gained from the pre-restart games with Chelsea and Liverpool. it was a downhill spiral from then conceding first goals to Wolves away and Newcastle at home. The Man Utd defeat was different because the players did score first and came out fighting - they were just beaten by a better team. The writing was on the wall by then, but still Bournemouth could have saved themselves. The failure to either beat Spurs and Southampton at home proved very costly. The away form had been bad all of 2020, so it was likely to turn at some point and Everton was a game where Bournemouth couldn't afford to have nerves. They duly delivered, just too late.

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Of course, Bournemouth were considered a team that made great comebacks in previous seasons, but these didn't materialise in 2019/20. The worry is not for me that the first goal didn't always come, but that the players are perhaps burnt out and will soon have to play again as a new season gets underway.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Bournemouth just weren't good enough

Saints do AFCB massive favour and AFCB fans know it

I was quite prepared for Southampton going to Vicarage Road and wave the white flag. But I turned to see a very competent performance by Ralf Hasenhuttl side who scored freely to win 1-3. Danny Ings was especially keen to do AFCB a favour as an ex-Cherry with his two goals, but I'm not sure AFCB deserve such favours.

For once Southampton give AFCB a golden opportunity.

Watford are now sitting like lame ducks, just a point ahead of Bournemouth with a goal difference, which is now only a one goal better than the Cherries. The Bournemouth fans have also had their say on Twitter, with some mixed emotions on a Saints win, but ultimately thankful to receive any help AFCB can get at the moment.

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Who would have though that #avfc #whufc and #afcb best player since the restart would have been Danny ings

— Chris Pollard (@ChrisPollard85) June 28, 2020

In 2017/18, we saved Southampton from relegation by beating their drop zone rivals Swansea and then letting them beat us.

The first part of them returning the favour is done.. #afcb #saintsfc

— Paddy (@MtMephamV5) June 28, 2020

#AFCB
You don’t think we’re going to have Saints fans back on here telling us how they’ve now saved us from relegation do you?🥺😁🍒🍒

— Lord William Snootsworth (@Snootsworth) June 28, 2020

Teams around us still not getting any further away. If we don't get out of this we've only got ourselves to blame.. maybe we'll actually have some shots on Wednesday 🤷‍♂️#AFCB

— Matt (@AFCB_97) June 28, 2020

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While the results have kept the bottom five in close proximity, there has to be some belief in some of these teams that they need to pull away now. Bournemouth have been shocking, but they have been gifted a great chance in opening up a gap like Brighton have done. The players can only blame themselves if they don't start to pull away from the relegation zone.

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If Bournemouth go down now, we really know that they deserve it because nobody usually gets as many chances as this to get some points on the board in a relegation scrap.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes -  Is a lack of football Bournemouth's problem?

Some positives for AFCB fans

While Bournemouth have lost their two opening games of the restart, there are a couple of positive thoughts that Bournemouth fans can take into the next few games. There have been a lot of negatives, but Eddie Howe needn't put his head in the sand just yet.

AFCB have too look at whatever positives they can find.

The first boost for the Cherries is that West Ham and Norwich haven't done any better in the first two games after the restart. Although Brighton look a win away from safety now, Watford and Aston Villa have only managed a point from their games, so it really is all to play for with four teams really battling it out to not go down with Norwich City.

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Another positive has been that the goal difference hasn't increased to such an extent that Bournemouth can't get ahead of West Ham and Watford in a few games time, if Bournemouth can get some positive results. Bournemouth also only lost by one goal to Wolves, whereas West Ham lost 0-2 at home which might give Bournemouth players a bit of confidence that they are doing slightly better than West Ham on current form.

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The big positive though has been the form of David Brooks. Although he has not scored, he has looked Bournemouth's best attacking player and extremely lively. He should be even sharper as we come to the third and fourth games. and he doesn't usually go too many games without either making an assist or scoring.

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Aaron Ramsdale has played okay without having an absolute blinder yet. I get the feeling that Aaron may have a big say yet on whether AFCB stay up or not, and he could make some big saves yet that secure him AFCB's player of the year.

Bournemouth now have just one away game in their next four matches and they have to believe they can get points at home, no matter who they are up against, if they can perform at their highest level. These may not be that many encouraging signs, but AFCB fans need whatever they can hold on to at the moment to keep some belief going.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Why can't Kelly start for AFCB?

Games could be more possession based thinks Howe

The Bundesliga has given everyone an insight into what games behind closed doors might be like. Eddie Howe said that he had seen some good away performances in Germany, and the games were perhaps less intense than expected, while sides were playing in a relaxed manner and possession was key in most victories. Whether the same pattern will happen in England when the Premier League restarts is open to question.

Howe hopes that possession hungry teams do well in the restart of the Premier League.

The interview that Eddie Howe gave on AFCB TV this week was a little insight into how Eddie Howe is feeling, but with the players around him I am sure he is far more anxious. He admits that the league could be very different with the form from previous games now gone, but at the start of the season AFCB tend to be a team that get away quite well, and Howe can only hope that this restart gets AFCB away from the bottom three. AFCB pride themselves on being a possession team, but it doesn't always bring results. It will be interesting to see if the tempo of games is a little slower than usual in the Premier League, somehow I think it will be as frantic as ever once we get into second halves with the bottom six teams especially scrapping for their lives.

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While Eddie talked about keeping the football pyramid in tact, it will soon hit everyone that the Project Restart is only a quick month or so of football. Matters will soon turn to preparation for 2020/21. I'd like to get Eddie's thoughts on what he thinks about possibly starting the next season behind closed doors, no matter what league AFCB are in and what kind of impact that would have on the Cherries if they are in the Championship?

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All this is in the future and Eddie Howe has to concentrate on the present. Winning matches is clearly going to be his biggest concern at the moment. While Brighton have decided to use cardboard cutouts of fans, AFCB seem content on just seeing empty seats at home games, but I am sure that any advantage AFCB can give their players they will be working on it.

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We'll only see whether AFCB have been doing the right things when the results start to flow through. With three games in the first week we will either be feeling much more confident or expecting the worse after seven days of football starting on 20 June.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Are hard fixtures a problem for AFCB?

Super computer predicts Cherries will beat relegation

Fans of the Cherries can take heart that not every prediction expects AFCB to go down this season. TalkSports' super computer has looked at all the remaining games for the Premier League and it has come up with the Cherries finishing in 17th place and staying up by the skin of their teeth.

Some reason for optimisim

It is bad news for Norwich City, Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion as far as the TalkSport computer is concerned, and I am hoping that the prediction comes true. How successful the super computer has been in the past I am not sure, but AFCB's players need every positive message they can get at the moment to fill them with belief.

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When I think of super computers I think of Tim Brooke-Taylor, from the Goodies, who sadly passed away this year, and the super Computer in Charlie and the Chocolate factory that wasn't very compliant in telling him where the last Golden ticket was hidden. All jesting aside, AFCB do have a chance of beating the drop, and like the super computer I think Brighton have the next hardest run of fixtures during the run-in.

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Bournemouth need to keep in contact with the three teams above them to make it a nervous finish to the end of the season. If they keep the likes of Brighton and West Ham in their sights then anything could happen, when it comes to the last couple of games. But Eddie Howe won't be relying on a super computer. The games have to be won on the pitch and it is a shame the computer doesn't tell you how you can win the matches.

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While we can all compute how we think the season will finish, some of us will get it right and others will get it wrong. I just with the anxiety would end soon. It is very much like when waiting for AFCB to win promotion to the Premier League, but this time it's not a happy feeling, just an uneasy worry about what life in the Championship would be like again.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Have AFCB got the goal power needed to stay up?

Where will AFCB pick up enough points to survive?

Viewing AFC Bournemouth's nine fixtures to go doesn't inspire me with great confidence that they can escape the bottom three. However, what does give me hope if that other teams are within a couple of points of being where AFCB are, and a win can give any team a massive step up towards safety.

Players will want to celebrate if they do stay up, but any celebrations will be muted.

Undoubtedly, now that there will be home games as well as away matches, AFCB's home games might offer the best chance of the team getting more points on the board. The games to come against Crystal Palace and Newcastle United probably give the Cherries their best chance of a reward, while Southampton match will be a big test as the Saints will want revenge for the defeat earlier in the season with the added bonus that they could help send AFCB down. If Bournemouth were to get nine points from those games they would be looking good for safety.

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However, the away fixtures look very difficult with the two Manchester clubs as well as Wolves and Everton. Bournemouth also have Leicester City and Spurs at home, but in all these fixtures AFCB would be doing well to get a point in any of them. It will be all about whether AFCB can put pressure on the teams above them - Watford, West Ham and Brighton. If AFCB can't put pressure on one of these teams then they are likely to go down. Aston Villa are far from being down yet as well.

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I don't know if the time lag before finishing the table will make things even more difficult. It is going to be very apparent very quickly after the first couple of games that Premier League status is very much in the balance and every game will be like a cup final. It is the immediacy and finality of these nine games which will probably capture fans memories for the next couple of seasons, as I think this season will be defined by these games. There hasn't been a season like it and let's hope we never have to go through this again. But if AFCB are successful and come out of this with their Premier League status in tact, what will the celebrations be like? It will be celebration at home for the fans, but social distancing will be almost impossible for the players when that final whistle goes. 

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Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Players must be able to make personal decisions over playing

Is Eddie ready for his biggest test?

Bournemouth go back to training and it will eventually fall on one man to be either successful of not in Bournemouths fight for survival. Eddie Howe is up against a couple of bosses that have brought teams up in Daniel Farke at Norwich and Dean Smith at Aston Villa as well as a new Premier League manager in Graham Potter and old pros, in Watford's Nigel Pearson and West Ham's David Moyes. Is Eddie Howe good enough to beat three of these men in his planning and game management?

Come on Eddie - can we see you at your very best in the next few weeks?

The question will soon be answered. Eddie Howe has an enormous amount of pressure on him and yet he'll see it as more of a challenge than a nightmare having had the experience of keeping AFCB in the football pyramid in his first management year. The difficulty this time is not that dissimilar as the financial impact will be huge of dropping back to the championship.

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You can read the first couple of chapters free online!

What is perhaps of most importance is that Maxim Denim is still prepared to back Howe and hasn't yet fallen out of love with football. If he did then Bournemouth would be in a much more perilous place and perhaps and have forgotten how unstable things used to be in the past, before we had such a wealthy but fairly silent owner.

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Bournemouth have lots of things going in their favour going into this relegations scrap. They know what it is like to fight for their lives and in Aaron Ramsdale they have recent experience of a couple of relegation scraps from lower in the football pyramid. As usual there are bigger clubs in this battle, but Eddie Howe likes to challenge himself against the best and if he comes through this test, it will go side by side what he did in his first managerial year for me.

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Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Barcelona youngster could become AFCB summer signing

The Saints have shown more character than the Cherries this season

Looking at the Cherries' 'repicked' game this week, it is great that our fans finally have a game to truly enjoy, as it has been a long time in coming to beat the Saints at their own ground. St Mary's simply hasn't been a happy hunting ground until this season, but one look at the current table shows that the Saints have shown much more resolve than AFCB to get out of trouble in 2019/20.

AFCB visits to St Mary's haven't been that successful over the years.

While Ralph Hasenhüttl looked like he was living on borrowed time back in October when Leicester gave them a  0-9 thumping at St Mary's, he has got them to near enough safety barring a catastrophic change in fortune now, which seems highly unlikely. Bournemouth meanwhile have been drifting slowing towards the bottom of the table and unable to seemingly stop the gradual decline.

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Things were so different in September 2019, when Bournemouth enjoyed a 1-3 win over Southampton and the season looked like it was on course for being a good one for AFCB. Many mistakes were made after that game and the inconsistency in front of goal, and the failure to keep hardly any clean sheets, took away the early pleasure of wins against Everton and Southampton.  

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What is worse is the next time we play Southampton could be the last one for. a while. The game that we have left in the current season is also unlikely to take place at home. That game would perhaps be played at Brighton's ground, as a neutral venue, behind closed doors, but it would not feel very advantageous to play there. So enjoy the re-run of this season's great win at Southampton and remember we will have good days again, even if Saints fans have more to be pleased about this season.

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Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Will five playable subs make much difference?

In other news, the Cherries repicked win at Southampton is being shown at 7.30pm tonight on AFCB's YouTube channel.

Will AFCB feel pressured to train soon with other teams already starting?

This week we have seen the likes of Arsenal, West Ham, Brighton and Spurs all deciding that their players need to start returning to the training grounds. But others like Watford's Chairman have said it is too soon, and the players that are able to train at their club's training ground are only able to do personal training on their own. Where does this leave AFCB?

Do AFCB have to start asking their players to come in to train at Kings Park?

TalkSport did a survey on club's positions and with Kings Park closed off to recreation it doesn't look like AFCB are easily going to get a go ahead to get back to their training ground. But will other teams gain an advantage by getting back in the groove earlier? They may do and it may make little difference, but once one looks like they are benefitting, other clubs will want to follow like sheep. I suspect Bournemouth will ask to start up training again, if more than half of the Premier League clubs are doing this.

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At the end of the day, nobody wants to get left behind, and the league is so competitive that the owners have to be seen to be giving their teams the best chance of having a good finish if the league resumes. Bournemouth might look most closely at the other bottom five clubs. With Brighton and West Ham already looking to start up their training, it may be thought that the Cherries wont want too many others around their league place starting up before them. Yet, the club may be more concerned with the teams they still have to play and how quickly they return, one of which is Spurs.

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Whatever AFCB decide it has to be what is the best decision for them and their players. The club has to see how much training the players are doing in self-isolation and whether they could do more if thy are in a big field, not far from their team-mates. Is it psychologically good to be around fellow players? Probably yes, but once players go back, they have to make sure they can do something worthwhile on the training ground or the players will soon tire of having to go in if they can't train fully as a team.

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In other news, France has postponed its football and major sporting events until September, effectively ending any chance for Ligue 1 resuming this season. The Bundesliga (Germany) is looking to start behind closed-doors in June and La Liga (Spain) is set to restart training on 4 May. Meanwhile, Fifa's Chief Medical doctor, Michel d'Hooghe, has also warned that football should not try to restart too early.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Is Jack Stacey ready to dominate AFCB's right-back position?

Who has the toughest run in among bottom six?

Everyone admits there are no easy gams in the Premier League, but many are harder than others. For example AFCB have never managed to get a point off of Man City and it is one of their remaining games, so perhaps that cuts the Cherries down to eight games to count. But other teams also have tricky games with Liverpool among Aston Villa's remaining matches, Chelsea will line up against Watford and West Ham will take on Man United and Tottenham in some of their remaining fixtures. It's going to be tough and yet the fixture that jumps out in a lot of the remaining games is the name of Burnley, who may well have a deciding factor on who goes down.

AFCB have it all to do if the season resumes.

Luckily or not AFCB have already played Burnley twice and suffered the consequences. But Brighton, Watford and Norwich all have to go away to Sean Dyche's side and West Ham have to play them at the London Stadium. Of the teams that have to play the top six the most we can look least favourably on Brighton & Hove Albion, who have to face five of the big guns in their remaining fixtures. Bournemouth have four such fixtures as do Aston Villa, but Watford have only three as do West Ham, while Norwich have two such fixtures left. So getting results against top teams is going to be most important for Brighton and Bournemouth.

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There are several six pointer games as we like to call them as well. Bournemouth are not in those having played all their games against the bottom six. Southampton are the lowest team that Bournemouth will have to pay in the run-in. But AFCB fans will be watching carefully on games like Norwich v Brighton, Norwich v West Ham, West Ham v Watford, Watford v Norwich, West Ham v Aston Villa. Norwich are involved in three of these games as are West Ham indicating that their fates well may rest on these bottom six fixtures.

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However, you call it we can expect it to be a tight race with a few more twists and turns yet. The odds probably favour Watford, West Ham and Brighton to stay up, but four wins from Bournemouth would very likely be enough to keep them. However, adding the points from these games last season to AFCB's potential total, from their remaining fixtures this season, is not good news. This time around we could expect something like eight points from these games. which may not be enough to beat the drop.

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For me the best fixture list in the run-in is probably Norwich's run of games, but they are playing catch up and may well have to much to do now. After that'I'd probably go for West Ham and Watford's fixtures, leaving Brighton, Bournemouth and Aston Villa with some less attractive fixtures to try and stay up. But who knows what might happen and even if these games will be played out.

In other sad news, Dickie Dowsett, former AFCB striker and commercial manager passed away at 88 on Sunday. Dickie's head features as the iconic figure on the AFCB crest to this day and is the sixth-highest all time goal scorer for AFCB. AFCB has Dickie's obituary on the website and The Bournemouth Echo also has a good piece on Dickie.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - Has Gosling got a big season left in him

What is going on in the last 10 minutes of games for Bournemouth?

It can't be stressed enough that the Cherries are finding it difficult to defend their goal in the last 10 minutes of games. We have seen last minute goals go in against Bournemouth in the matches against Watford, Brighton, Sheffield United, Burnley and Chelsea. The last 10 minutes are clearly not being kind to Bournemouth, but are there reasons for this?

Shipping goals in the last 10 minutes.

I have to wonder if the players are running out of energy after 80 minutes. As Bournemouth's possession stats are not high it is likely that this could have something to do with their inability to defend as well in the last few minutes of games. You also have to wonder how much of a mental thing it is if it keeps happening and the players almost expect it to happen again.

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Late subs could also be a factor. We saw it with Gosling coming on at the end of the game against Chelsea for Lewis Cook, and when Stanislas came on for Fraser against Sheffield United. So when Eddie makes a late sub, beware!

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Clearly Bournemouth are not scoring many goals either in the last 10 minutes of games. If we rule out the FA Cup, you have to go back to the match against Tottenham in November to find Bournemouth scoring in the last 10 minutes of a game, and that was in the 90+6 minute so the team almost ran out of time to do it in that game! We might think that once 60 minutes comes up, Bournemouth's game is over as far as an offensive proposition goes. That's really not good.

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So, if Howe wants to look for something to improve this week, I would stress that the last quarter of games is something that he could really do with improving for AFCB.

Previous post on Cherry Chimes - It's not about the Table in March, it's May that counts

The Cherries are still bang in trouble

Eddie Howe won't get carried away with the point against Chelsea. The point is a welcome one, but it wasn't enough to keep the Cherries form falling back into the bottom three with the results that Watford and West Ham Utd got.

The Cherries are still short on points.

The table was going to change and is likely to keep changing in the final 10 games. The run-in is upon us and it's as much about not losing nerve now as anything else. If the team is winning games it will get to safety, but there is an uneasy feeling that so many of the teams around Bournemouth have also stepped up their game and have started to pick up points.

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It is pretty much anyone's guess as to who is going to stumble, but I think you have to look at who is scoring goals. Bournemouth have their swagger back and are on the rise along with Watford and West Ham. That could make it difficult for teams such as Norwich City, Aston Villa, Brighton and even Newcastle who are not finding goals as all easy to come by.

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Where Bournemouth are still having problems is on defence. The second half against Chelsea was anxious because the players defended deeper and deeper and it gave Chelsea impetus to get back int o the game. Bournemouth were at their best when they were pressing for a their goal, but we just didn't see enough of it once the team had got ahead. It is a fine balance and while risking it by pushing players forward, it's easy to get caught on the break.

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The table doesn't lie, Bournemouth have not been good enough this season so far but they are on terms with several other teams and can pip them, if they have a better run-in than three of the other struggling teams.