Friday, 22 November 2013

AFCB need a very good first half against Derby

I have been having an updated look at when the goals have gone in this season and in particular I thought it would be of interest to see how AFCB have been doing at home and also catching up on how Derby County well have been faring away from home.

Timings of AFCB home goals for prior to Derby County game.
The immediate spread of goals for the Cherries at home (see red chart above) would indicate that they are a bit of a second half team this season. However, if you discounted the Millwall game they would have scored more goals in the first half than in the second half of games. At any rate we can say that the Cherries are not particularly early goal scorers in the Championship. The earliest strike they have managed, when playing at home, was a 12 minute goal in the Blackpool match and even then it was an equaliser, because Blackpool had already scored against AFCB in the seventh minute!

Taking the home goal scoring as a whole and it would appear that the team does peak between the 50-60 and 65-80 minute mark at the moment with six goals having been scored in this period, three of those against Millwall. While the Cherries have been scoring in every game at home except for the match against Bolton, they are finding it difficult to win by more than one goal, the Millwall game again being the big exception. In total AFCB have scored 11 home goals in seven games and considering five of those were against Millwall there is a fair bit of truth to Eddie Howe's comments that the crowd need to get behind the team even more at home.

First half goals against have been the problem at the Goldsands stadium.
In the goals against column at home AFCB have been conceding goals predominantly in the first half. In the home games, seven of the 10 goals against have come in the first 45 minutes of matches. Only three of the goals against Bournemouth at home have come in the second half, indicating again that perhaps the Cherries are more of a second half team. The Cherries have also managed two clean sheets at home.

Looking at Derby County's away record, they have been scoring well at away ground having a total of 12 goals and seven of them coming in the first half of matches. This makes me think that AFCB really have to be on their guard in the first 45 minutes against Derby. The Rams have only failed to score away from home against Nottingham Forest.

Derby have an impressive goal scoring record away from
home, particularly in the first half.
Derby have been conceding away from home as well though. Their Achilles heel would seem to be in the first half. Three of the goals against have come before 20 minutes and a further two in the five minutes before half time (see yellow chart below). However, in the second half, away from home, Derby have only let in three goals this season. That is quite an achievement and would suggest that they are a very fit team by my reckoning.

Derby are also letting ion goals in the first half.
So the message for Eddie Howe and the players at AFCB must be to strike early in this match if we want to get any points out of the game, based on previous performances. Even then though Derby have come back against Bolton from a two-nil head start to draw and against Watford to win 2:3 away from home.

As a bonus for today, KnowHowe 4 is now available to view on the Know Howe tab. Find out which AFCB goal we have chosen to imitate.

No comments:

Post a Comment